Why Everything About Developer Growth Is Changing

The developer software world is moving faster than it ever has.

Not slightly faster. Not incrementally faster.

Wildly faster.

As Ashley Smith puts it:

“The developer software world is changing at a pace that I’ve not seen in my 20 years.”

AI is accelerating how software is built, how teams operate, and how products go to market. But while tools are changing, many of the core truths about growth are staying the same.

This post breaks down what actually works right now, straight from someone who helped scale:

• GitHub → $7.5B acquisition
• GitLab → $10B+ IPO
• Twilio → $50B company

…and is now investing in the next generation of dev-first startups.

1. The Biggest Mistake Founders Are Making Right Now

Let’s start with a spicy one.

A lot of companies are blaming AI for layoffs.

Ashley doesn’t buy it.

“If you want to go fire 20% of your team, blame AI… but it’s probably a failure at the leadership level.”

What’s actually happening:

• Companies overhired during growth cycles
• Headcount became a vanity metric
• Efficiency is now the focus

What this means for founders:

• Don’t scale teams early
• Don’t hire because “you raised”
• Don’t build org charts before you have customers

2. The New GTM Rule: Founders Close the First Customers

One of the biggest shifts in startup GTM:

Founders are back in the driver’s seat.

“We’re not measuring companies based on team size anymore. We’re measuring based on customers and revenue.”

The old model:

• Raise money
• Hire Head of Sales + Marketing
• Build team
• Then figure out GTM

The new model:

• Founder gets first 10 customers
• Validate repeatability
• THEN hire

Practical benchmark:

• ~$500K–$1M ARR
• Repeatable customer pattern
• Founder is overwhelmed

That’s when you hire.

Not before.

3. Why Developer Marketing Still Doesn’t Scale (And That’s a Good Thing)

If you’re selling to developers, forget traditional marketing playbooks.

Paid ads? Mostly useless.

“Advertising isn’t working for developer audiences… it’s almost a negative indicator.”

What actually works:

1. Community-driven growth

• Reddit
• Hacker News
• Niche forums

2. Real interactions

• Answering questions
• Helping solve problems
• Building credibility over time

3. Content that teaches (not sells)

• “Here’s how we built X”
• “Here’s what broke”
• “Here’s what we learned”

4. The Rise of AEO: Why Reddit and LLMs Matter More Than SEO

Here’s where things get interesting.

LLMs like ChatGPT are changing discovery.

Instead of Google:

• Developers ask AI
• AI pulls from Reddit + real discussions

“If you can get content ranking on Reddit… it shows up in ChatGPT answers.”

This creates a new growth loop:

1. Create useful technical content
2. Get discussion on Reddit
3. Rank in LLM outputs
4. Drive awareness passively

5. Why Attribution Is Broken (And Always Will Be)

Let’s talk about the elephant in the room.

Attribution.

It doesn’t work the way people think it does.

“Everyone has 4–5 interactions before they convert… fighting over attribution is the dumbest fight ever.”

The reality:

• Users don’t convert from one touch
• Journeys are messy
• Channels overlap constantly

Example:

• Sees Reddit post
• Attends event
• Googles later
• Signs up direct

Which channel gets credit?

Nobody knows.

6. The Only Attribution Model That Actually Matters

Instead of obsessing over “first touch” or “last touch,” Ashley’s approach was simple:

1. Accept multi-touch reality

Everything contributes.

2. Track patterns, not perfection

• Which channels correlate with revenue
• Not which channel “caused” it

3. Avoid internal fights

• Don’t pit teams against each other
• Don’t over-weight channels

7. The Secret Weapon in Developer GTM: Taste

This one is underrated.

“If you have good taste, developers pay more attention.”

What “taste” actually means:

• Design quality
• Event experience
• Brand feel
• Attention to detail

Real examples:

• DigitalOcean shark mascot
• GitHub’s giant octopus installation
• Twilio’s early community events

Weird? Yes.
Memorable? Absolutely.

8. Events Are Back (And More Important Than Ever)

Events are having a moment again.

“Events are working… they’re back.”

Why they work:

• Developers want real interaction
• Social media is getting noisy
• AI content fatigue is real

But here’s the catch:

Events only work if you actually engage.

Bad:

• Standing at booth
• Checking phone

Good:

• Talking to people
• Creating relationships
• Hosting side events

9. The Future of AI + Dev Tools: Invest in What Breaks

If you’re building or investing right now, here’s the mindset shift:

“Watch what breaks… and invest there.”

Where things are breaking:

• Security
• Production deployment
• Agent reliability
• Infrastructure scaling

Why this matters:

AI is making building easier
But production is still hard

10. The Founder Skill That Matters Most Now

In a world where ideas change weekly:

“You’re backing people who can’t get attached to an idea… because it might not exist in three weeks.”

The new founder skillset:

• Fast iteration
• Low ego
• High adaptability
• Strong taste

Final Takeaways

If you remember nothing else, remember this:

1. Founder-led GTM is back

2. Developer marketing = trust, not ads

3. Attribution is messy, embrace it

4. AI is accelerating everything, not replacing everything

5. Taste and creativity still win